The China/Asia Pacific Political Economy Program of the

Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies (CIEPS)
 
 
 

Director, Thomas D. Willett, Horton Professor of Economics

Email: thomas.willett@cgu.edu       Phone: 909.621.8694
 

Co-Director, Yi Feng, Luther Lee Professor of Government and CGU Special Assistant for International Programs

Email: yi.feng@cgu.edu                    Phone: 909.621.8086

 

Deputy Director, Jingjing Xu, SPE Senior Fellow and Adjunct Professor

Phone: 925.249.9688
 
Senior Fellow, Linus Wunan Xiao
 
Co-coordinator, Han Chen, Claremont Graduate University
 
 
Introduction
 

The economic rise of China and much of the rest of Asia is one of the most remarkable developments of the 21st century. While their developments have been responsible for huge increases in human welfare, they also present many important challenges for the global economy, for US-Asia relations and for the Asian economies themselves. Managing the economic rise of Asia in a peaceful and productive manner will require major efforts by all of the nations involved as well as the international and regional economic and financial institutions.

 

Building on the previous Claremont Colleges wide Asian Political Economy program funded by a generous grant from the Freeman Foundation, the China Asia Pacific Political Economy Program of the Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies (CIEPS) was established in 2008 to better utilize the faculty and student resources of the Claremont Colleges and our research associates from other institutions in our production of policy-relevant research and analysis of economic, financial, and social issues facing China and the rest of Asia, and international economics relations, especially with the United States. A companion objective is to promote education about China and China-US relations at the Claremont Colleges and provide educational outreach to the American public. To these ends, the program developed a new course, China in the Global Economy, and helped increase the focus on China, Asia, and Asian-US relations in other courses such as international economics, international money and finance, trade and development, finance and development, and Asian economic development. Financial support from the Asia Pacific Exchange and Cooperation Foundation has helped facilitate the expansion of the Program’s activities.

 

This educational mission fits well with the transdisciplinary emphasis of Claremont Graduate University. Our degree programs in the Division of Politics and Economics include applied economics, international political economy, the “Interfield” PhD in economics and politics, and our new professional masters and PhD programs in “Global Commerce and Finance.”

 

The program also has a strong research component. We prepare and circulate research working papers and policy analyses, and sponsor lectures, seminars, conferences and workshops, host visiting scholars and officials, and organize sessions at the meetings of professional associations such as the Asia Pacific Economic Association and the Western Economic Association International. Our conferences and workshops are often the result of cooperation with other institutions. A large number of students from China and elsewhere are involved in research projects of the program, where they gain experience in the art and practice of producing high quality policy research and analysis. We are especially proud of our record of joint authored publications by Claremont faculty and students.

 

Our Approach

 

In both our teaching and our research we emphasize the importance of theory and applied statistical methods to understand real world issues, rather than succumbing to the tendency to produce theory for its own sake. With this perspective we utilize many different theories and research methods with attention to the strengths and limitations of each. This results in a strong emphasis on the roles of institutional and political economy factors on policy.

 

While we make considerable use of standard economic theories we are also alert to situations where the traditional economic models of highly informed rational actors are not appropriate. Our methodological critique of traditional neoclassical economics is not a wholesale rejection. Standard economics provides an elegant model for understanding today's global economy about half of the time, when economic dynamics are in the “near equilibrium” range. But agents are not always well-informed, and prices do not always convey sufficient information. Sometimes markets fail.

 

Since the rash of international currency crises in the 1990’s, our Claremont Institute of Economic Policy Studies (CIEPS) has been studying various theoretical and empirical aspects of crises, exploring factors that can shift economies from their normal operation into a “far from equilibrium” phase that typically includes credit booms, asset price bubbles and non-price rationing. Thus much of our analysis draws on research from complex adaptive systems, behavioral finance, and neuroeconomics, which demonstrate cognitive limitations to the rational model and stress the roles that uncertainty and differing mental models play with regard to political and economic behavior.

 

We have been applying this range of approaches to issues such as the generation and spread of currency and financial crises, financial liberalization and regulation in China and other emerging market countries, the behavior of and policies toward international capital flows, the implications of growing economic and financial interdependence and the economic rise of China for national policies and global governance including the changing roles of the internal financial institutions and the G20, the implications of the expansion of cross country production networks for international trade and exchange rate policies, and Asian economic and financial cooperation.

 

Below we list faculty associates of the program, a partial list of our recent publications, conferences, workshops, and lectures.

 
 

CIEPS China/Asia Pacific Political Economy Program Faculty Research Associates:

Apanard (Penny) Angkinand, Senior Research Analyst, Capital Studies group, Milken Institute

Sven Arndt, Charles M. Stone Professor of Money, Credit and Trade, Claremont McKenna College and Visiting Professor, Chinese University of Hong Kong

Graham Bird, Clinical Professor of Economics, Division of Politics and Economics, Claremont Graduate University

Richard Burdekin, Jonathan B. Lovelace Professor of Economics, Claremont McKenna College

Eric Chiu, Associate Professor, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan

Arthur Denzau, Professor of Economics, Claremont Graduate University

Levan Efremidze,  Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance, Pepperdine University

Yi Feng, the Luther Lee Chair in Government, Department of Politics and Policy and Provost and Vice President for Academic Affairs, Claremont Graduate University

Jacek Kugler, the Elisabeth Helm Rosecrans Professor of World Politics, Department of Politics and Policy, Claremont Graduate University

James Lehman, Emeritus Professor Pitzer College. and Adjunct Professor of Economics, Claremont Graduate University.

Priscilla Liang, Assistant Professor, California State University, Channel Islands

Jie Li, Associate Professor, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing

Linyue Li, Research Associate, CIEPS

Alice Ouyang, Associate Professor, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing

Hal Nelson, Research Assistant Professor, Claremont Graduate University

Ramkishen Rajan, Professor, George Mason University

John Rutledge, Senior Fellow, Division of Politics and Economics, Claremont Graduate University

Ozan Sula, Associate Professor, Western Washington University

Nancy Tao, Assistant Professor, University of Wisconsin – Whitewater

Clas Wihlborg, Fletcher Jones Chair of International Business at the Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University

Nan Zhang, Research Associate, CIEPS
 

Co-hosted Conferences and Conference Sessions in 2011

 

Global Growth and Economic Governance: Implications for Asia; George Mason University, June 8, 2011; Arlington, VA. 

Western Economic Association International 2011; Session Title: China and World Financial Markets. Papers include:

  • James R. Barth (Auburn University) and Tong (Cindy) Li (Milken Institute)Financial Globalization in China: Some Policy Issues”
  • Richard C. K. Burdekin (Claremont McKenna College) and Pierre L. Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University)“Enter the Dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US, and Asia-Pacific Equity Markets, 1995-2010”
  • Patrick M. Stephan (WestfälischeWilhelms-UniversitätMünster), Jedrzej P. Bialkowski (University of Canterbury), Martin P. Bohl (WestfälischeWilhelms-UniversitätMünster), and Tomasz P. Wisniewski (University of Leicester)“Is There a Speculative Bubble in the Price of Gold?”
  • Ran Tao (University of Wisconsin-Whitewater), and Richard C. K. Burdekin (Claremont McKenna College)“Bank Lending, Inflation and China's Stock Market, 2004-2010”

Korea and the World Economy: Challenges after the Recent Global Turbulences. Claremont McKenna College, August 12 - 13, 2011, Claremont, CA. 

A Partial Listing of Research and Publications by China/Asia Pacific Political Economy Program Associates
Books
 

Bird, Graham, and Rajan, Ramkishen (2002). The Evolving Asian Financial Architecture, Essays in International Economics, No 226, Princeton University, 60pp.

 

Bird, Graham (2003). The IMF and the Future: Issues and Options Facing the Fund, Routledge, 2003, 299pp.

 

Bird, Graham (2004). International Finance and the Developing Economies, Palgrave, 2004, 312pp.

Burdekin, Richard C.K. (2008). China’s Monetary Challenges: Past Experiences and Future Prospects. Cambridge University Press, New York.

 

Feng, Yi (co-editor), (2000) Financial Market Reform in China: Progress, Problems and Prospects. Boulder, CO: Westview.

 

Rajan, Ramkishen. Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Asia, Routledge, forthcoming end 2011.

 

Rajan, Ramkishen. (2011). Crisis, Capital Flows and FDI in Emerging Asia. Oxford University Press, (with Sasidaran Gopalan and Rabin Hattari).

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2009) Exchange Rates, Currency Crisis and Monetary Cooperation in Asia. Palgrave-MacMillan Press (11 chapters, 242 pages).

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2009). Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton University Press, (with Kenneth Reinert co-editor and Lewis Davis and Amy Glass as Associate editors).

 

Willett, Thomas D. (2009) The Global Crisis and Korea's International Financial Policies, Washinton,DC Korean Economics Institute (with contributions by Nancy Auerbach, Kenneth Kim, Yoonmin Kim, Alice Ouyang, Orawan Perpoon, Thana Sompornserm, Lalana Srisorn, and Ozan Sula).

 

Articles, Conference Papers, and Book Chapters

Angkinand, Apanard, and Willett, Thomas D. (2006). “Exchange Rate Regimes and banking Crises: The Channels of Influence Investigated” presented at the Annual Meetings of the Asian Pacific Economics Association, Seattle, International Journal of Finance and Economics (forthcoming).

 

Angkinand, Apanard, (2008). “Government Structure, Strength, and Effectiveness” in King Banaian and Bryan Roberts (eds), The Design And Use Of Political Economy Indicators: Challenges of Definition, Aggregation, and Application. New York: Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. (with A.T. Denzau, Y. Feng, Kugler, T.D. Willett and others)

 

Apanard Angkinand, Chiu, Chiu, & Willett, Thomas D. 2009. "Testing the Unstable Middle and Two Corners Hypotheses About Exchange Rate Regimes." Open Economies Review, vol. 20(1), pages 61-83, February.

 

Angkinand, Apanard, and Willett, Thomas D. (2008). “Political Influences on the Costs of Banking Crises in Emerging Market Economies: Testing the U-Shaped Veto Player Hypothesis”. Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economics, 2008, Volume 1, No. 2, pp. 279-297.

 

Angkinand, Apanard (2009). “Banking Regulation and the Output Cost of Banking Crises” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 19(2), pp 240–257.

 

Angkinand, Apanard; Wihlborg, C. and Sawangngoenyuang, W. (2010).  “Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises: Crossâ€ÂÂÂÂÂCountry Analysis” International Review of Finance, 10(2), pp 263-292.

 

Angkinand, Apanard, and Wihlborg, C.  (2010). “Deposit Insurance Coverage, Ownership, and Banks’ Risk-taking in Emerging Markets,” Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(2), pp 252-274.

 

Angkinand, Apanard; Barth, J. and Kim, H. (2010). “Spillover Effects from the U.S. Financial Crisis: Some Time-Series Evidence from National Stock Returns” in Benton Gup (ed), The Financial and Economic Crises: An International Perspective. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

 

Arndt, Sven W. (2002) “Future Exchange Rate Regimes for Developing East Asia: Exploring the Policy Options” in T.K. Yan (ed.), Asian Economic Recovery: Policy Options for Growth and Stability (Singapore: Singapore University Press, 2002a)

 

Arndt, Sven W. (2004) “Global Production Networks and Regional Integration” in M. Plummer (ed.), Empirical Methods in International Trade (Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2004a)

Arndt, Sven W. (2007) “The Doha Development Round: Reaching Beyond Trade Liberalization” Pacific Economic Review, Vol.12 (August 2007)

 

Arndt, Sven W. (2010) “Intra-industry Trade and the Open Economy.”  August 2010, Korea and the World Economy.

 

Arndt, Sven W. (2010) “International Financial Intermediation and Production Networks.” Hong Kong, APEA meetings in July, 2010.

 

Bird, Graham and Rajan, Ramkishen (2002). ‘Will Asian Economies Gain from Liberalizing Trade in Services?’ Journal of World Trade, 26 (6), Dec, pp 1061-1079.

 

Bird, Graham (2002). ‘Regional Arrangements for Providing Liquidity in a Financial Crisis: Developments in East Asia,’ Pacific Review, 15 (3), pp 359-379 (with Ramkishen Rajan).

 

Bird, Graham and Willett, Thomas D. (2004). ‘IMF Conditionality, Implementation and the New Political Economy of Ownership’, Comparative Economic Studies, 46, pp 423-450.

 

Bird, Graham; Rajan, R. and Siregar, R. (2005). ‘Precautionary Reserve Holdings in Asia: Examining the Case for a Regional Reserve Pool,’ Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, 9 (1), pp 21 - 39.

 

Bird, Graham (2006). ‘IMF Quotas: Constructing an International Organization Using Inferior Building Blocks,’ Review of International Organizations, 1 (2), pp 153 -171 (with Dane Rowlands).

 

Bird, Graham and Willett, Thomas D. (2007). ‘Multilateral Surveillance: Is the IMF Shooting for the Stars?’ World Economics, 8 (4).

 

Bird, Graham (2007). ‘The IMF: A Bird’s Eye View of Its Role and Operations,’ Journal of Economic Surveys, 21 (4) pp 683- 745.

 

Bird, Graham and Rajan, Ramkishen (2007). ‘The Political Economy of Sequencing: the Trade and Monetary Components of Regional Integration,’ North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 18, pp 335 – 341.

 

Bird, Graham and Mandilares, Alex (2007).  ‘Foreign Exchange Markets in South East Asia 1990 – 2004: An Empirical Analysis of Spillovers during Crisis and Non–crisis Periods,’ North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 18, pp 41-57.

 

Bird, Graham and Thomas D. Willett (2008). “Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods: A Review Essay”. World Economics July-September 2008, Volume 9, No. 3, pp. 229-233.

 
Bird, Graham and Willett, Thomas D. (forthcoming). “Currency Wars.” World Economics
 

Bird, Graham (2008).  ‘Unwinding Global Economic Imbalances: What’s Growth Got to Do with It?’ World Economics, 9 (3), pp 211-215.

 

Bird, Graham and Rowlands, D. (2009). ‘Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing and Emerging Economies and the Incidence of IMF Programs: What Does the Empirical Evidence Show?’ World Development, 37 (12), pp 1839-1848.

 

Bird, Graham (2009). ‘Reforming IMF Conditionality: From Streamlining to Major Overhaul,’ World Economics, 10 (3), pp 81-104.

 

Bird, Graham (2009). ‘So Far So Good, But Still Some Missing Links: A Report Card on the G20 London Summit,’ World Economics, 10 (2), pp 1-10.

 

Bird, Graham (2010). ‘Special Drawing Rights: How Fashions Change,’ forthcoming in World Economics, 11 (1).

 

Burdekin, Richard and Ran Tao (2009). “The Evolution of Bank Lending Patterns in China: A Post-1994 Province-by-Province Analysis” (with Richard C. K. Burdekin) in China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, in Glenn Yago (Milken Institute), John Tatom (Networks Financial Institute) and James Barth (Milken Institute), eds., in Milken Institute Series on Financial Innovation and Economic Growth, Springer.

 

Burdekin, Richard and Ran Tao (2008). “China’s State-Owned Banks’ Lending Practices, 1994-2005: Empirical Tests and Policy Implications,” The Open Economics Journal 1, pp. 14-24.

 

Chiu, Eric and Willett, Thomas D. (2009) “The Interactions of Strengths of Governments and Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Avoiding Currency Crises”. International Studies Quarterly, Volume 53, No.4, December 2009, pp. 1001-1025.

 

Chiu, Eric and Willett, Thomas D. (2010). “Capital Controls and Currency Crisis: A More Disaggregated Political Economy Analysis.” Paper presented at the 2010 International Political Economy Society Conference, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA.

 

Efremidze, Levan (2010) “Has the Role of Twin Deficits Changed?: Sudden Stops During the Last Three Decades” (with Akinori Tomohara) in Financial Crisis & the Global Bubble Economy, Akinori Tomohara, ed., Nova Science, forthcoming

 

Efremidze, Levan, Sula, Ozan and Schreyer, Samuel. (2011). “Sudden Stops and Currency Crises.” Journal of Financial Economic Policy Vol 3 Issue 4 (forthcoming).

 

Feng, Yi (2000). “Determinants of Economic Growth in China: Private Enterprises, Education and Openness” China Economic Review Volume 11, No. 1, pp.1-15 (with Baizhu Chen).

 

Feng, Yi (2001). “Openness and Trade policy in China: An Industrial Analysis.” China Economic Review, Volume 11, No. 3, pp.323-341 (with Baizhu Chen).

 

Feng, Yi (2007). “Sources of Political Capacity and a Case Study of China.” International Studies Review.

 

Kugler, Jacek (2000) “The Politics of Fertility and Economic Development” (with Yi Feng and Paul Zak, International Studies Quarterly (44,2)

 

Kugler, Jacek (2002) “Populations Growth, Urbanization and the Role of Government in China: A Political Economy Model of Demographic Change” (with Yi Feng and Paul Zak), Urban Studies, (39,12)

 

Kugler, Jacek (2006) “Power Transition and China-US Conflicts” (with Ronald L. Tammen), The Chinese Journal of International Politics 1(1):35-55. Reproduced with augmentations from the Science of International Politics, the Institute of International Studies, Tsinghua University.

 

Li, Jie, Ozan Sula and Thomas D. Willett (2009). “A New Framework for Analyzing Adequate and Excessive Reserve Levels under High Capital Mobility” in China and Asia: Economic and Financial Interactions, Yin-Wong Cheung and Kar-Yiu Wong, eds., Routledge, pp. 230-245.

 

Liang, Priscilla and Thomas D. Willett, (2008). “Testing Hypotheses About the Asian Contagion: Evidence from the Bond and Stock Markets,” Journal of Applied Business Economics, 2008.

 

Liang, Priscilla, Alice Ouyang, and Thomas D. Willett (2009). “The RMB Debate and International Influences on China’s Money and Financial Markets.” in China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, Glenn Yago , John Tatom , and James Barth eds., in Milken Institute Series on Financial Innovation and Economic Growth, Springer.

 

Liang, Priscilla, Nan Zhang, Thomas D. Willett. (2010) “The Slow Spread of the Global Financial Crisis.” Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy Vol 1. (1), pp. 33-58

 

Liang, Priscilla, Nan Zhang, Thomas D. Willett (2011) “Global Contagion and the Decoupling Debate” in Yin-Wong Cheung, Vikas Kakkar, and Guonan Ma eds. The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance. Emerald Group Publishing.

 

Ouyang, Alice, Ramkishen Rajan, and Thomas D. Willett (2008).“Managing the Monetary Consequences of reserve Accumulations in Emerging Asia”, Global Economic Review June, pp. 171-199.

 

Ouyang, Alice, Ramkishen Rajan and Thomas D. Willett. (2010). “China as a Reserve Sink.” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 29 (5) September, pp. 951-972.,

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2010) “Globalization and Public Health in Asia”, in Roger Deetles, Sheena Sullivan and Tan Chorh Chuan (eds.), Public Health in Asia, UC Berkeley, 2010, forthcoming (with Elizabeth A. Jahncke, Saumik Paul, Adeline Seow).

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2010) “Financial Sector De-Regulation in Asia: Focus on Foreign Bank Entry”, The Journal of World Investment and Trade, 11 (1), pp.91-108 (with Sasidaran Gopalan).

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2009) “Understanding Intra-Asian FDI Flows”, Asia Pacific Economic Literature, 23 (2), pp.73-93 (with Rabin Hattari).

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2009) “Managing Risks in a Volatile Environment: The Capital Inflows Problem in Asia”, Economia Internazionale, LXII (3), pp.325-340 (with Tony Cavoli).

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2009) “What Explains Intra-Asian FDI Flows?: Do Distance and Trade Matter?”, forthcoming in Economics Bulletin, (with Rabin Hattari).

 

Rajan, Ramkishen (2007) “Exploring the Case for Monetary Integration between Mainland China and Hong Kong”, China and the World Economy, 15 (4), pp.17-34 (with Tony Cavoli)

 

Rutledge, J. (2008). “Asia’s Energy Security and the Middle East” In S. K. Multani (ed.), Energy Security in Asia. Hyderabad, India: The Icfai University Press.

 

Rutledge, J. (2007, July 11). “Growth, Turbulence, and Protectionism.” Chinese Academy of Sciences.

 

Rutledge, J. (2007, April 4). “Asian Energy Security and the Middle East.” Chinese Academy of Sciences.

 

Rutledge, J. (2006, October 4). “Communism is Alive and Well in China.” Wall Street Journal Asia.

 

Sula, Ozan and Willett, Thomas D. (2009). “The Reversibility of Different Types of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets.” Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 10, Issue 4, December, pp.296-310.

 

Sula, Ozan. (2010). "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, vol. 21(4), pp.  589-605,

 

Willett, Thomas D. (2008). “The Debates over in RMB and Global Imbalances: Sense and Nonsense” in The Chinese Banker.

 

Willett, Thomas D. (2009) “The RMB Debate and International Influences on China’s Money and Financial Markets” (with Priscilla Liang and Alice Ouyang) in James Barth and John Tatom, eds., China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, Milken Institute, 2009, pp. 267-301.

 

Willett, Thomas D. (2009) “Asia Needs More Cooperation, Not a Single Currency” presented at the Asian Development Bank Institute – North East Asia Research Foundation Conference on the Global Financial Crisis, Future of the Dollar, and the Choice of Asia, May 31- June 1, 2009, forthcoming in conference volume.

 

Willett, Thomas D. (2009) “Impacts of the Financial Crisis on the Asian Economies.” Contribution to Guijun Lin and Kar-Yiu Wong eds. The Boao Forum for Asia Progress of Asian Economic Integration, Annual Report.

 
 

Willett, Thomas D. (2010) “Some Lessons for Economists from the Financial Crisis.” Indian Growth and Development review (forthcoming).

 

Willett, Thomas D. and Lalana Srisorn,  (2011) “Lessons from European Crisis for Asia” presented at “Global Growth and Economic Governance: Implications for Asia” at George Mason University, June 8, 2011; Arlington, VA.

 

Willett, Thomas D. (2009) The Global Crisis and Korea's International Financial Policies, Washinton,DC Korean Economics Institute (with contributions by Nancy Auerbach, Kenneth Kim, Yoonmin Kim, Alice Ouyang, Orawan Perpoon, Thana Sompornserm, Lalana Srisorn, and Ozan Sula).

 

Zhang, Nan, Linyue Li and Thomas Willett, “The effects of the Global Financial Crisis on China’s Macreconomy and Financial Markets”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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