How an Independent Study Project Became a Published Election Forecast

With the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections now part of history, debates continue over how voter sentiment, party branding, and historical trends shaped the outcome. What if we could cut through the noise and better understand the forces that determined the results? 

That’s exactly what a team of Claremont Graduate University PhD students set out to do in collaboration with Assistant Professor of Political Science Carlos Algara. What began as an independent study course on electoral forecasting quickly evolved into a full-fledged research project — one that ultimately became a peer-reviewed publication in PS: Political Science & Politics.

The students’ research explored the relationship between presidential approval, partisan brand strength, and electoral outcomes in the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections. By analyzing historical data dating back to 1937, the study demonstrated that while presidential approval is a strong predictor of election outcomes, partisan brand strength plays a more significant role in congressional races. Their model forecasted a highly competitive election, with Republicans favored to win the White House while control of Congress was less certain. 

The research stemmed from an independent study course on electoral forecasting. What began as a theoretical exploration evolved into a robust research project, with students leveraging historical data to model partisan accountability in U.S. elections.

Through close collaboration with Algara, the students refined their methodology, conducted rigorous analysis, and ultimately produced a study that contributes new insights to the field of political science. 

Independent study courses at CGU are designed to be more than academic exercises; they serve as incubators for research. Faculty members mentor students, guiding them through the complexities of things like data analysis, theoretical framing, and scholarly writing. This approach not only enhances students’ research skills but helps them get the experience needed to contribute meaningfully to academic discourse.

The journey from an idea to a published work is rarely a straight path, but students don’t have to navigate it alone. Forecasting Partisan Collective Accountability shows how independent research, when nurtured in the right environment, can evolve into something meaningful. 

For the students involved, this experience wasn’t just about publication — it was about learning how to ask the right questions, analyze data critically, and contribute to ongoing conversations in their field. The university provides resources and mentorship, but it’s the students’ curiosity and dedication that drives projects like this forward.